REGION: Immigrant voters may be key in next election

Study: North County political districts could see big changes

By EDWARD SIFUENTES - Staff Writer | Tuesday, April 29, 2008 10:47 AM PDT

With about 145,000 immigrants eligible to become citizens in San Diego County, the foreign-born population is poised to become an influential voting bloc in the next presidential election, according to a new study released Tuesday.

Moreover, 85,000 children of immigrants in the county will become eligible to vote by 2012, according to the report titled the "Integration Potential of California's Immigrants and their Children."

In some political districts in San Diego County, new immigrant voters could make up 20 percent or more of the electorate by 2012.

The effect of such a shift in the makeup of North County could have an enormous effect on its political representation. The region, which has a large population of new immigrants, is represented by an all-Republican delegation who are among the staunchest opponents of illegal immigration.

North County also has become a flashpoint in the national immigration debate with such efforts as the Escondido City Council's failed ordinance to bar landlords from renting to illegal immigrants.

The study was commissioned by the Grantmakers Concerned with Immigrants and Refugees, a group that promotes immigrants' contributions to the nation and their participation in civic life.

The study culled data from the U.S. Census to calculate how many immigrants live in each county, assembly district and state senate district.

Daranee Petsod, executive director of the Sonoma County-based organization, said the study was important for policy makers.

"We believe that we can't have a vibrant society if we don't integrate immigrants," Petsod said.

Statewide, more than 6.5 million foreign-born residents either are naturalized citizens or are eligible to become naturalized citizens, said Rob Paral, a researcher and the study's author.

In addition to the 6.5 million adult immigrants, there are 1.2 million children of immigrants in California who will be eligible to vote by 2012, Paral said.

The figures in the report may not be surprising to some immigrant rights advocates, who have said that immigrants, by force of their numbers, will change the political landscape of the state and the nation in the near future.

Isabel Alegria, a spokeswoman for the California Immigrant Policy Center, an immigrants rights group based in Los Angeles, said such a huge voting bloc could change the national debate on immigration.

"I doubt that immigrants are going to support anti-immigrant proposals," Alegria said. "I think the message is to representatives is one of inclusion."

Within North County's state assembly and senate districts, new immigrant voters could make up more than 20 percent of voters by 2012, according to the report. For example, the 74th Assembly District, which includes much of North County, has about 69,000 immigrants and their children who would be eligible to vote in the next presidential election, the report says. The 74th District has 250,000 eligible voters.

Other districts in North County could see similar jumps, including a 28 percent increase in the 75th Assembly District, and a 22 percent increase in the 38th Senate District.

The 74th Assembly District is represented by Assemblyman Martin Garrick, R-Carlsbad. He was not available to comment Monday.

Immigrants from Mexico make up the largest group of people from one country, 914,000, who are eligible to become citizens. The second-largest group is from the Philippines, 137,000.

Arcela Nunez-Alvarez, director of the National Latino Research Center at Cal State San Marcos, said the study offers an important glimpse into a segment of the population that is rarely scrutinized.

The information could help local groups refine their efforts to increase participation of noncitizens to become citizens and vote. She said many of those groups are grass-roots organizations that don't have a lot of money and must focus their voter registration and education campaigns where they will do the most good.

"There is a lot of great potential with this report," Nunez-Alvarez said.

The full report is available at www.gcir.org.

Contact staff writer Edward Sifuentes at (760) 740-3511 or esifuentes@nctimes.com.

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Pre-Registration Comments[-]Go to Top

Beth wrote on Apr 29, 2008 1:18 AM:I can never tell if the reporter is referring to legal residents or illegal lawbreakers when he says "immigrant". I wish somebody would edit his work for clarity.

Poll worker wrote on Apr 29, 2008 3:26 AM:There is more interest in marching than voting. March stories sell more newspapers than boring polling place stories. Who wants to read about voters asking why no ID is required to vote or who has access to the 'dead' list? After all we have it on good source that you don't need papers to vote.

La Raza Dreamers wrote on Apr 29, 2008 3:44 AM:Just because a person has immigrant parents from Mexico does not means that person will adopt the La Raza politics of their Mexican parents.

Most Legal Immigrants wrote on Apr 29, 2008 5:21 AM:do support illegal immigration enforcement. This story is not correct. LEGAL is the KEY word here.

I still wrote on Apr 29, 2008 6:34 AM:don't think they'll even VOTE! Where's their "Immigrant candidate" ? Arnold??

Greg in Oceanside wrote on Apr 29, 2008 6:56 AM:Let's hope Sifuentes is referring to legal immigrants, and isn't trying to 'get the word out' to illegal aliens to 'go out and vote' in an attempt to elect one of the lunatic left-wing Democratic candidates who might support amnesty. Nonetheless, I support proof-of-citizenship, such as government issued ID cards and drivers licenses before anyone is allowed to vote. There are no excuses, and those opposed to ID's are only trying to put up a smokescreen to allow illegal aliens to sneak in to vote.

Obvious wrote on Apr 29, 2008 7:22 AM:Only U.S. citizens can vote. The only immigrants this story concerns are legal immigrants who have gone through the never ending process of becoming a citizen. If they have become a citizen, they can vote. If they haven't, they can't. End of story.

P wrote on Apr 29, 2008 7:57 AM:To Obvious: Have you ever seen a voter registration card? All you have to do is check the box that asks you if you're a legal citizen and Voila! You can vote. Do you think someone who is here illegally, who collects government goodies illegally, etc, has a problem with checking a box illegally?

Hmmmmm wrote on Apr 29, 2008 8:14 AM:Thats a scary thought

Indiana wrote on Apr 29, 2008 8:15 AM:California should be like Indiana. Show ID or you don't vote!

Go one step further wrote on Apr 29, 2008 8:57 AM:Show your ID and a Social Security ID, and have the Social Security last four digits of the Social Security number be the last four on the driver's license ID.

Tom wrote on Apr 29, 2008 9:05 AM:Just because they are or will be eligible to vote does not mean they will. Let us just focus on June and November's election with the U.S. citizens we have now voting. I don't hear much about Hilary and the Pennsylvania election. You do know that the voter turn out of white men helped her win. No, you wont hear that here. Like I said, let's focus!

Wow that is spooky wrote on Apr 29, 2008 9:15 AM:with 145,000 new voters that most had to wait their turn in line, I doubt if those people will be voting for any kind of amnesty. Matter of fact they will probably be the ones demanding closing the borders and deporting illegals.

What happens wrote on Apr 29, 2008 9:55 AM:When the only people left in California are too uneducated because it isnt important, dont pay taxes and want a handout.... but the money train rolled out of the station.... guess the Latino leaders will personnally feed and care for their people.... NOT...

New Voter Test wrote on Apr 29, 2008 10:14 AM:What will the new voters want? To pay more taxes, or to cut spending. The Governor just announced that the budget gap could approach $20 billion in the next fiscal year that begins July 1. These new voters will need to choose whether they want to live in a high tax state, or a low spending state. As new citizens, they will find the free lunch is over!

Independent wrote on Apr 29, 2008 10:15 AM:Before the immigrant rights marches, I was not against illegal immigration. After witnessing persons associated with the NLRC in local politics, I now realize that the goal of such government sponsored organizations is to promote an invasion from Mexico of prospective minions. The invasion would not be a problem except that most of the illegal immigrants are poor and do not understand that activists are leading them away from the American dream and promoting a vision that failed in their home country, and that will fail in the US. Social programs have exploded in California under the current leadership, and now our government cannot afford to even fill potholes, let alone invest in our future.

Hidden Costs wrote on Apr 29, 2008 10:43 AM:After watching my recent immigrant neighbors walk away from their mortgage leaving the bank with a massive loss ($250,000), and unpaid property taxes, I am now threatened with a wave of new voters threatening to wreak havoc with 'changes' in immigration sentiments, none for the better. I doubt new immigrant voters will make California and the US a better and more prosperous place to live. Instead, they will want to raise taxes on the 'rich' (those making more than $60,000 a year), but there are not enough rich to support all who want to the government to provide them with free services. This article outlines the enormous costs of uncontrolled immigration, which costs will affect our community for years into the future.

Outbreed Outnumber Outvote wrote on Apr 29, 2008 11:06 AM:This three prong strategy never worked south of the border, but it is working in Alta California.

Bunch of ... wrote on Apr 29, 2008 12:53 PM:Good Lord, didn't any of you ever pay attention in CIVICS class, an immigrant is an individual who moves to another country - LEGALLY; and those who arrive by other means are called ILLEGAL ALIENS. No wonder you have no idea what the story is about, you are clueless to the basics. Understand this, you are about to become the minority class in California! Get out while the gettin' good!

Redistricting Mess wrote on Apr 29, 2008 1:15 PM:Redistricting will have a much bigger effect. The reason Republican dominate in the North County is because CA Democrats place as many Republicans as possible into certain district while maximizing the number of districts that lean to the Democrats. Also, illegal are gerrymandered with heavily Democratic areas so that Democrats are elected to represent the illegals (redistricting lines are drawn by population, not citizenship). The solution is to register as an independent, and to vote your conscience.

I am renouncing my wrote on Apr 29, 2008 1:20 PM:American Citizenship! Now gimme, gimme, and gimme more!!!!

Sharon wrote on Apr 29, 2008 1:50 PM:"There are 1.2 million children of immigrants in California who will be eligible to vote by 2012." You can bet that those whose parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, friends, etc. are here illegally will vote for the candidate that will give them Amnesty! Count on it. (Its time to stop granting automatic citizenship to those born here of illegal immigrants unless we really want to give this country to Mexico.)

Invade Mexico wrote on Apr 29, 2008 2:04 PM:Now Mexico must allow Americans to move to Mexico and vote. Then real reform can take place there. Now that would be a historic change!

The hypocrisy wrote on Apr 29, 2008 3:49 PM:is truly incredible. Pro open border activists fail to tell any of their minions that IF they vote for a welfare candidate and society, CA WILL revert to the ignorant,impoverished nations they fled. CA is already bankrupt, the housing market has crashed and no one't wants a tax increase that we ALL know will go to educate, house, medicate, support illegal aliens, via their "non citizen" offspring. The 1.2 million of them are costing tax payers $10.8 BILLION a year. Seriously, how long do they think this can or will continue?

JK wrote on Apr 29, 2008 4:13 PM:I don't care how many voters you have on either side of the immigration issue, if it requires an elected official (see gutless politician)to introduce any type of real immigration reform legislation, it is doomed before a single vote is cast.

Another well known poll wrote on Apr 29, 2008 4:45 PM:Why do you keep reporting what these unknown pollsters come up with? Common, NCT, do you get all your news from the internet? Do your reporters ever leave their office?

Dave wrote on Apr 29, 2008 5:57 PM:Ya hit it right on the head with this one! With open borders before long we'll all be like L.A. and have City officials to match.

El Jefe wrote on Apr 30, 2008 12:32 AM:There is nothing deragatory or disparaging about the term illegal aliens as it is an accurate discription. We are not calling them extraterrestial for crying out loud! I just hope with the latest Supreme Court ruling proper identification will be enforced at the polling places to deter any potential fraud by non-citizens.

Nick wrote on Apr 30, 2008 7:55 AM:I guess most of you folks missed the new ruling on voting requirements in Indiana.
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states can require voters to produce photo identification without violating their constitutional rights.
And guess what? There are at least 7 states waiting for that ruling to pass the same law, and guess how many more will follow? I'm betting dollars to doughnuts that California will be next.
NO photo ID, NO vote! Pretty simple huh?

Wow Nick wrote on Apr 30, 2008 8:47 AM:Imagine that, an AMERICAN tradition being reserved for Americans. NOW is the time for Americans to demand that OUR laws and traditions be upheld. I see NO problem with a Voter ID that is ONLY granted to legal citizens. Concurrent with that, we need to strictly interpret the 14th Amendment to exclude those born on US soil whose parent(s) are NOT under the jurisdiction of anything in the US.

Sleeping but awake wrote on Apr 30, 2008 10:00 AM:How can this story degrade into this senseless diatribe about mexico opening a front to take back California? The article is clear, these are fellow citizens. They vote, we vote, the results are as they will be. Period.

Nick wrote on Apr 30, 2008 10:07 AM:I am in total agreement with you "WOW Nick". How much do you want to bet that the 14th Amendment is next? I don't care how much all the whiners and "SD Raoul's" on these blogs think nothing will happen to the 14th, the majority of Americans are hip to the rampant abuse of the 14th by ILLEGALS and want the loophole fixed.
The time is coming, and ILLEGALS are going to start running out of options, other than get in line and become legal or leave.
Personally, I'm all for them leaving.
Cheers, Nick.

OneifbyLand-Los Angeles wrote on Apr 30, 2008 10:34 AM:Now the long term strategy of Illegal Aliens
from Mexico comes into play:
1. Have many Anchor Babies who will become
U.S. citizens due to the misinterpretation
and abuse of the 14th Amendment.
2. Use these very controversial Anchor
babies as a Fifth Column for sympathy
while getting free education and welfare.
3, When the Anchor Baby Fifth Column
achieves voting age,have them vote to
change U.S. Immigration Law to legalize
their Illegal Alien parents and allow even
more Amnestys for the "Future Flow of Illegals
into the USA!!
numbersusa.com
grassfire.org
capsweb.com
americanpatrol,com

Now think people wrote on Apr 30, 2008 10:51 AM:if we close the borders to illegals, we will also be stopping terrorist from entering our country? Do you really want that? The politicans have said in some many words Americans want a war on American soil.

Taxpayer Voter wrote on Apr 30, 2008 11:04 AM:We need photo ID requirements on voting NOW! Why should voting be easier than buying beer? I have no doubts that La Raza ... will do everything they can to continue corrupting the United States, voter fraud is the tip of the iceberg.

Hey One wrote on Apr 30, 2008 11:18 AM:Are you aware of Walter Moore? I hope so, as he will wipe out that fifth column.

Isaiah wrote on Apr 30, 2008 11:35 AM:According to a March 17th ICE report, dozens of Illegal aliens were sentenced on immigration, fraud and identity-theft charges in DAVENPORT, Iowa - The last two of 20 former employees of a large scale scheme. Seems to me, it makes little sense to ignore the realities of illegal aliens stealing our social security numbers, names and driver's licenses and just simply grant them amnesty. The hard truth is the majority of illegal aliens are committing fraud. They are unconvicted felons. To sugggest we ignore this and grant them amnesty is the height of idiocy. We cannot. We must not grant amnesty for illegal aliens. We should be issuing arrest warrants and doing sweeps for these criminals. ...

Luke wrote on Apr 30, 2008 11:41 AM:Illegal aliens deserve nothing from Americans but handcuffs and a bus ride to the nearest jail. After that, another bus ride back to their country of orgin. Adios. Make the greedy corporation hire low risk prisoners to pick the agriculture.

Yes but remember wrote on Apr 30, 2008 12:25 PM:to our government their is only 12 million illegal aliens here for years. It would be nice to have Senators and Congressmaen that passed math. What is 2 + 2, Gentlemen? Wrong Bobby the correct answer is 4.

why not just... wrote on Apr 30, 2008 12:59 PM:focus your efforts on getting all US citizens to vote instead of focusing on the few undocumented immigrants who do and whining and crying about how they "steal" EVERYTHING from you?

After tomorrows wrote on Apr 30, 2008 3:04 PM:March, expect another backlash to hit the presidential canidates and all of the parties.

Stop it you are making me laugh wrote on Apr 30, 2008 3:48 PM:By Mark Stevenson
ASSOCIATED PRESS
8:36 p.m. April 29, 2008
MEXICO CITY – Migrant rights activists applauded a vote by Mexico's Congress to remove long-standing criminal penalties for undocumented migrants found in the country.
The measure passed unanimously in the lower house on Tuesday, a day after Senate approval. President Felipe Calderón's office declined to say whether he would sign the popular measure into law. AdvertisementMexican lawmakers saw the harsh penalties as an anachronism, and some noted Mexico also owes migrants better treatment. Immigrants here, mostly Central Americans trying to reach the U.S., are often robbed, mistreated and subject to extortion by bandits and even police.
“It is very positive that they have removed the criminal penalties from the current law,” said Karina Arias, the spokeswoman for Sin Fronteras, a Mexican group that promotes rights for migrants in Mexico. “It is a big step forward.”

Current law lays out punishments of 1½ to 6 years, while the new measure makes undocumented immigration a minor offense punishable by fines equivalent to about US$475 (euro300) to US$2,400 (euro1,535). Some Mexican officials acknowledged that the current harsh penalties weakened Mexico's position in arguing for better treatment of its own migrants in the United States.

Sean wrote on Apr 30, 2008 5:27 PM:Any citizen who votes should be applauded.

Vista Resident wrote on Apr 30, 2008 11:46 PM:We were promised that NAFTA would make life better for Mexicans so that they would not need to leave their homes and families to come work in the USA. Those promises were political lies. And, NAFTA is wreaking even more havok on Mexicans this year in the agricultural sector as competition from the US puts their poorest Mexican workers out of work. No wonder they come here. We need to get our heads up out of the sand and fix the problem here rather than just rail on the victims of corporate greed.

This is the fault of corporations that work for policy that is exclusively in their own interest rather than for the common good of humanity. It's as much of a problem for the illegal aliens who are deprived of a normal life as it is for us and the strain they put on our infrastructure.

NAFTA and other "free" trade agreements must be terminated. There is no such thing as "free" in trade. The best we can do is "fair" trade that looks out for worker wages and worker welfare. But, our trade agreements have one goal in mind -- to nuke unions because they provide worker protections and defend living wages.

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